I think the whole Kyle Busch/Richard Petty debate is dumb because Cup races aren't ran at abandoned corn fields anymore where Petty could win by several laps with the most badass car. One could argue that it's harder to get victories now since the level of competition isn't so different in a sense. This new package was to make closer racing and theoretically create more chances to win for everyone, but motorsports don't work that way and no matter what is done, the same people will always win. I just think Kyle is getting better as time passes and hasn't peaked yet. I think he'll be up there with the greats before too long.
Also agree that people need to knock off the Richard Petty comparisons. NASCAR of the 1970's is only barely similar to modern day in that they both involve cars going around a track, it's impossible to make a fair comparison between the two time periods.
YES!
Kyle Busch has 52 wins in 502 career starts, so he has a career win rate of slightly higher than winning once every 10 starts. If you subtract the first 3 full seasons, Kyle has 48 wins in 388 starts, or a win in every 8.08 starts. That puts him at around 9 wins every 2 full seasons for a period of 11 seasons. That includes a 1 win season in 2012 and again in 2014, and a 5 win season in 2015, when he missed 11 starts due to a broken leg.
If you look at just the last 4 full years and the start of this year, he has a Cup win in every 5.95 Cup starts. That's 6 wins per full season. He's hitting his prime right now, and JGR appears to still have top-tier equipment to give him each and every week.
If Kyle can continue to drive at his current pace (and JGR avoids a 2-season slump like HMS had the past 2 seasons or like he had in 2012/2014), he will probably get close to 90 Cup wins before he retires.
He will turn 34 in May of this year. He could drive another 10-12 years. You have to think he's good for
at least 30 more Cup wins before the end of his age-40 season (2025). He could get 40 wins or more between now and then, with just a little luck. For reference, Matt Kenseth won 5 races in his age 43 season driving for Gibbs in 2015.
The most likely things to slow down Kyle would be significant changes to the cars to make them easier to drive (further narrowing the talent gap in drivers), a decline by Toyota and/or Gibbs, another catastrophic injury, or the emergence of more dominant teams/drivers (like Truex 2 years ago, taking wins away from EVERYONE).
I'm not a huge fan of Kyle Busch, but you have to admit he is probably the most talented driver in the field nearly every week. If nothing else changes in the next 5-10 years, he is going to challenge the win totals of Yarborough/Johnson/Waltrip/Allison, Gordon, and possibly even David Pearson (the actual greatest Cup driver to ever live).